Pirates Top 30 Prospect Trend Report

8-24-21 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

In the coming weeks I will give a weekly update to how the top 30 prospects progressed. I will be using Fangaphs rankings, these guys are a lot smarter than I am. The Bucs MiLB system is off on Mondays, so Tuesday seems the natural day to this.

I will give the weekly stats and the season stats and indicate if the numbers moved up or down.  If FG gives a prospect a bump or even lowers the FV number I will make note of that. I will also not give the stats to the players currently in the MLB. 

I will also highlight a player at the end.

1-Henry Davis – 50 FV       

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	286/353/714	1.067	.426	.422	161	11.8%	35.3%
Season	263/375/684	1.059	.421	.424	162	16.7%	33.3%

 2-Quinn Priester – 50 FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week	5	7.20	4.38		1.40	438	27.3%	0%
Season	79	3.08	4.38	4.39	1.23	274	22.6%	9.1%

3 – Roansy Contreras – 50 FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week – (IL)								
Season	46	2.35	2.36	2.79	.91	275	35.5%	6%

4- Liver Peguero – 50 FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	238/261/286	.547	.048	.243	47	4.3%	17.4%
Season	259/317/433	.750	.174	.327	101	7.1%	25.5%

5-Miguel Yajure – 50 FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week – (IL)								
Season	21	3.43	4.05	2.97	.95	.234	28.7%	7.5%
MLB	9.1	3.86	5.21	4.51	.86	.143	23.5%	8.8%

6- Oneil Cruz – 50 FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	333/400/556	.956	.222	.412	158	10%	40%
Season	291/352/538	.890	.247	.381	138	8.8%	23.5%

7-Tahnaj Thom – 50 FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week	4	0.00	4.76		1.50	.200	22.2%	22.2%
Season	51.2	4.18	5.85	5.79	1.53	.225	23.1%	14.3%

8-Nick Gonzales – 50 FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	444/464/704	1.168	.259	.500	210	3.6%	28.6%
Season	298/368/514	.882	.216	.381	135	8.5%	29%

9-Travis Swaggerty – 50 FV – Out for the year

10-Bubba Chandler – 45 FV – 8 plate appearances, lets save this 

11-Ji-hwan Bae – 45 FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.316/.462/.317	.777	.000	.371	131	40%	40%
Season	.2643/.35/.410	.745	.146	.328	103	9.3%	24.2%

12-Brennan Malone – 45 FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week – CPX	4.1	10.38	7.54	5.04	1.85	.300	25%	20%
Week – A	3.2	0.00	7.61	9.12	2.45	.333	10%	25%

13-Hudson Head – 45 FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week-	.067/.300/.067	.367	.000	.240	37	20%	45%
Season-	.200/.362/.375	.737	.175	.375	110	17%	32.2%

14-Cody Bolton – 45 FV -out for the season

15-Maikol Escotto – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week-	.214/.353/.214	.567	.000	.304	76	17.6%	41.2%
Season-	.244/.377/.376	.752	.238	.465	114	16.4%	30.8%

16-Anthony Solometo – Nothing Yet

17-Jarred Jones – 40+ FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week	3.2	9.82	4.61		4.61	.286	33.3%	22.2%
Season	52.1	3.59	3.54	3.48	1.37	.384	35.5%	10.8%

18-Carmen Mlodzinski – 40+ FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week	2	18.00	17.76		3.00	.333	16.7%	16.7%
Season	45	3.20	4.48	3.78	1.09	.258	32%	9.4%

19-Canaan Smith-Njigba – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week – (IL)							
Season	.286/.403/.427	.830	.141	372	132	16.1%	25.8%

20-Lonnie White – 40+ FV – Only 2 plate appearances, let’s save this

21-Rodolfo Castro – 40+ FV – MLB and is headed back to the MiLB, let’s take a look once he is back in Altoona

22-Diego Castillo – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.240/.269/.400	.669	.160	.290	78	3.8%	7.7%
Season – PIT	.263/.320/.453	.773	.189	.367	108	7.7%	7.7%
Season – NYY	.277/.345/.504	.850	.228	.367	128	8.4%	13.7%

23-Rodolfo Nolasco – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.286/.412/.500	.912	.214	.428	146	11.8%	17.6%
Season	.250/.368/.385	.754	.135	.367	110	14%	31.6%

24-Jared Oliva – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.364/.417/.500	.917	.136	.405	148	4.2%	20.8%
Season	.243/.315/.348	.663	.104	.301	79	7.9%	27.6%
MLB	.175/.233/.225	.458	.050	.215	20	7%	23.3%

25-Endy Rodriguez – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.333/.429/.667	1.095	.333	.489	188	14.3%	42.9%
Season	.273/.362/.464	.826	.190	.384	124	11.7%	19.2%

26-Mason Martin – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.208/,208/.414	.625	.208	.262	59	0%	50%
Season	.256/.332/.536	.868	.280	.366	128	8.5%	34.7%

27-Jose Soriano – 40+ FV – Out for the season

28-Luis Oviedo -40+ FV – MLB

29-Cal Mitchel – 40+ FV

	BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
Week	.273/.333/.455	.788	.182	.345	114	4.2%	16.7%
Season	.272/.326/.446	.722	.174	.335	107	5.7%	17.5%

30-Eddy Yean – 40+ FV

	IP	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WHIP	BABIP	K%	BB
Week	3.2	2.45	6.79		2.45	.375	25%	30%
Season	53	5.77	5.64	4.79	1.43	.259	23.3%	14.4%

So there’s the weekly update. A few quick notes, there are more 40+ FV prospects that aren;t in the top 30 prospects,  that’s how deep it is right now. A lot of depth here! A few guys I can see getting a bump soon? Canaan Smith-Njigba. Endy Rodrihuez. Diego Castillo. Carmen Mlodzinski. And Jared Jones. They might not be the only ones but they are the ones that jumped out to me. One more that jumps out as being in line for an FV jump? Well, that leads me to the highlighted player, hey Fangraphs, can Matt Fraizer please get some respect? Seriously, he’s not even a 35+ FV prospect, and that simply has to change. 

When the Bucs drafted him in the 3rd round in the 2019 draft he was coming off a broken hamate so there was not a lot  for teams to go on in his last year at school. And while he looked good at Arizona before that injury, slashing 412/452/565  a big jump from his sophomore slash line of 266/352/359, there was nothing to suggest  the power breakthrough we’ve seen this year.  It’s not entirely unusual for a Jr in the NCAA ranks to make that kind of jump, particularly after not playing his freshman season at Arizona, but it appears the Buccos really got one here and Cherington should consider giving a shout out to Neal Huntington, this was one of his draft picks. 

And the best part? The peripherals suggest he’s the real deal. At 23 he is age appropriate for AA despite missing a season due to the COVID situation, so no worries there. Let’s delve in a little…

Matt started the year in A+ and in 75 games terrorized it. Hittin 20 HR in 350 trips to the plate, but Fraizer is no one trick pony, he also hit 17 more extra base hits. 14 doubles and 3 triples. He isn’t limited to the long ball. Here’s what he did in A+

BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
.314/401/.578	.979	.264	.418	158	12.3%	21.1%

Since getting the call to AA, well he hasn’t slowed much…in fact he’s been better in the short amount of time in Altoona. 

BA/OBP/SL	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC	walk	K
.379/.422/.690	1.112	.310	.464	193	4.7%	20.3%

Now don’t get me wrong the AA sample size is small and at some point they will adjust to what he is doing. How quickly Fraizer makes adjustments could be a key to how quickly we see him in Pittsburgh and how high he shoots up boards. 

Something that jumps out here, Matt has never had a K rate higher than 22.2% so he has a great feel for the strike zone. The ground ball is down from 47.4% in A- ball. 36.8% in A+ and 43.5% in AA. He’s also pulling the ball more, 45.7% in AA and 41.6% in A+ a decent jump from 32.8% in A- in his 2019 season. But with a healthy hand, literally, these numbers aren’t all that alarming. Get used to the name Pirate fans, you’re going to be hearing it a lot!