Pirates Top 30 Prospect Trend Report

8-24-21 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

In the coming weeks I will give a weekly update to how the top 30 prospects progressed. I will be using Fangaphs rankings, these guys are a lot smarter than I am. The Bucs MiLB system is off on Mondays, so Tuesday seems the natural day to this.

I will give the weekly stats and the season stats and indicate if the numbers moved up or down.  If FG gives a prospect a bump or even lowers the FV number I will make note of that. I will also not give the stats to the players currently in the MLB. 

I will also highlight a player at the end.

1-Henry Davis – 50 FV       

BA/OBP/SL OPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week 286/353/7141.067.426.42216111.8%35.3%
Season263/375/684 1.059 .421 .424 16216.7%33.3%

 2-Quinn Priester – 50 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week57.204.381.4043827.3%0%
Season793.084.384.391.2327422.6%9.1%

3 – Roansy Contreras – 50 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week – (IL)
Season462.352.362.79.9127535.5%6%

4- Liver Peguero – 50 FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week238/261/286.547.048.243474.3%17.4%
Season259/317/433.750.174.3271017.1%25.5%

5-Miguel Yajure – 50 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week – (IL)
Season213.434.052.97.95.23428.7%7.5%
MLB9.13.865.214.51.86.14323.5%8.8%

6- Oneil Cruz – 50 FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week333/400/556.956.222.41215810%40%
Season291/352/538.890.247.3811388.8%23.5%

7-Tahnaj Thom – 50 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week40.004.761.50.20022.2%22.2%
Season51.24.185.855.791.53.22523.1%14.3%

8-Nick Gonzales – 50 FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week 444/464/704 1.168 .259 .500 210 3.6% 28.6%
Season 298/368/514 .882 .216 .381 135 8.5% 29%

9-Travis Swaggerty – 50 FV – Out for the year

10-Bubba Chandler – 45 FV – 8 plate appearances, lets save this 

11-Ji-hwan Bae – 45 FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week .316/.462/.317 .777 .000 .371 131 40% 40%
Season .2643/.35/.410 .745 .146 .328 103 9.3% 24.2%

12-Brennan Malone – 45 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week – CPX4.110.38 7.54 5.04 1.85 .300 25%20%
Week – A3.20.007.61 9.12 2.45 .333 10% 25%

13-Hudson Head – 45 FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week-.067/.300/.067 .367 .000 .240 37 20% 45%
Season-.200/.362/.375 .737 .175 .375 110 17% 32.2%

14-Cody Bolton – 45 FV -out for the season

15-Maikol Escotto – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week-.214/.353/.214.567.000.3047617.6%41.2%
Season-.244/.377/.376 .752.238.46511416.4%30.8%

16-Anthony Solometo – Nothing Yet

17-Jarred Jones – 40+ FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week3.29.824.614.61.28633.3%22.2%
Season52.13.593.543.481.37.38435.5%10.8%

18-Carmen Mlodzinski – 40+ FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week218.0017.763.00.33316.7%16.7%
Season453.204.483.781.09.25832%9.4%

19-Canaan Smith-Njigba – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week – (IL)
Season.286/.403/.427.830.14137213216.1%25.8%

20-Lonnie White – 40+ FV – Only 2 plate appearances, let’s save this

21-Rodolfo Castro – 40+ FV – MLB and is headed back to the MiLB, let’s take a look once he is back in Altoona

22-Diego Castillo – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week .240/.269/.400 .669 .160.290783.8%7.7%
Season – PIT .263/.320/.453 .773.189.3671087.7%7.7%
Season – NYY .277/.345/.504.850.228.3671288.4%13.7%

23-Rodolfo Nolasco – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week.286/.412/.500.912.214.42814611.8%17.6%
Season.250/.368/.385.754.135.36711014%31.6%

24-Jared Oliva – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week.364/.417/.500.917.136.4051484.2%20.8%
Season.243/.315/.348.663.104.301797.9%27.6%
MLB.175/.233/.225.458.050.215207%23.3%

25-Endy Rodriguez – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week .333/.429/.6671.095.333.48918814.3%42.9%
Season .273/.362/.464.826.190.38412411.7%19.2%

26-Mason Martin – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week .208/,208/.414.625.208.262590%50%
Season .256/.332/.536.868.280.3661288.5%34.7%

27-Jose Soriano – 40+ FV – Out for the season

28-Luis Oviedo -40+ FV – MLB

29-Cal Mitchel – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week.273/.333/.455.788.182.3451144.2%16.7%
Season.272/.326/.446 .722.174.3351075.7%17.5%

30-Eddy Yean – 40+ FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week3.22.456.792.45.37525%30%
Season535.775.644.791.43.25923.3%14.4%

So there’s the weekly update. A few quick notes, there are more 40+ FV prospects that aren;t in the top 30 prospects,  that’s how deep it is right now. A lot of depth here! A few guys I can see getting a bump soon? Canaan Smith-Njigba. Endy Rodrihuez. Diego Castillo. Carmen Mlodzinski. And Jared Jones. They might not be the only ones but they are the ones that jumped out to me. One more that jumps out as being in line for an FV jump? Well, that leads me to the highlighted player, hey Fangraphs, can Matt Fraizer please get some respect? Seriously, he’s not even a 35+ FV prospect, and that simply has to change. 

When the Bucs drafted him in the 3rd round in the 2019 draft he was coming off a broken hamate so there was not a lot  for teams to go on in his last year at school. And while he looked good at Arizona before that injury, slashing 412/452/565  a big jump from his sophomore slash line of 266/352/359, there was nothing to suggest  the power breakthrough we’ve seen this year.  It’s not entirely unusual for a Jr in the NCAA ranks to make that kind of jump, particularly after not playing his freshman season at Arizona, but it appears the Buccos really got one here and Cherington should consider giving a shout out to Neal Huntington, this was one of his draft picks. 

And the best part? The peripherals suggest he’s the real deal. At 23 he is age appropriate for AA despite missing a season due to the COVID situation, so no worries there. Let’s delve in a little…

Matt started the year in A+ and in 75 games terrorized it. Hittin 20 HR in 350 trips to the plate, but Fraizer is no one trick pony, he also hit 17 more extra base hits. 14 doubles and 3 triples. He isn’t limited to the long ball. Here’s what he did in A+

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
.314/401/.578 .979.264.41815812.3%21.1%

Since getting the call to AA, well he hasn’t slowed much…in fact he’s been better in the short amount of time in Altoona. 

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
.379/.422/.6901.112.310.4641934.7%20.3%

Now don’t get me wrong the AA sample size is small and at some point they will adjust to what he is doing. How quickly Fraizer makes adjustments could be a key to how quickly we see him in Pittsburgh and how high he shoots up boards. 

Something that jumps out here, Matt has never had a K rate higher than 22.2% so he has a great feel for the strike zone. The ground ball is down from 47.4% in A- ball. 36.8% in A+ and 43.5% in AA. He’s also pulling the ball more, 45.7% in AA and 41.6% in A+ a decent jump from 32.8% in A- in his 2019 season. But with a healthy hand, literally, these numbers aren’t all that alarming. Get used to the name Pirate fans, you’re going to be hearing it a lot!

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