Pirates Top 30 Prospect Trend Report

Posted byJudPosted inOpinion & Analysis, Weekly Feature

8-31-21 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

It was a fun week for the Pirates system. A lot of guys had some big games, perhaps no one bigger than former 1st rounder Nick Gonzales, who had a monster game Sunday evening that included three bombs. A few guys look ready for their respective next level and one had a set back. And finally we see a positive sign from one of my personal favorite prospects, Brennan Malone.

There have been no changes to the the order of the top 30 and no one received and FV bump. Now let’s get to it!

1-Henry Davis – 50 FV       Set Back, Injury

BA/OBP/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week286/353/7141.067.426.42916011.8%35.3%
Season263/375/6841.059.421.42416116.7%33.3%

 2-Quinn Priester – 50 FV ARROW UP

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week60.00-0.54.05316768.4%0%
Season852.864.064.061.1527125.1%8.6%

3 – Roansy Contreras – 50 FV IL

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week – (IL)
Season462.352.362.79.9127535.5%6%

4- Liover Peguero – 50 FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week333/394/6671.061.333.4461759.1%21.2%
Season266/324/455.779.189.3381077.2%25.1%

5-Miguel Yajure – 50 FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week – (IL)4.23.862.74.86.26715.8%0%
Season25.23.513.813.27.86.24226.3%6.1%
MLB9.13.865.214.51.86.14323.5%8.8%

6- Oneil Cruz – 50 FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week273/333/273.606.000.283738.3%25%
Season290/351/523.874.233.3761348.0%23.6%

7-Tahnaj Thomas – 50 FV ARROW DOWN

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week57.205.391.60.35019.0%4.8%
Season56.24.455.845.741.54.28322.8%13.5%

8-Nick Gonzales – 50 FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week296/345/8151.160.519.4691906.9%17.2%
Season298/365/544.910.246.3891408.3%27.9%

9-Travis Swaggerty – 50 FV – Out for the year

10-Bubba Chandler – 45 FV

BA/OPS/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week
Season143/294/357.651.214.3148017.6%35.3%

11-Ji-hwan Bae – 45 FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week471/571/4711.042.000.47820214.3%9.5%
Season 277/352/414.766.137.3391109.7%23.1%

12-Brennan Malone – 45 FV ARROW UP

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week24.501.081.00.33333.3%0%
Season- CPX6.18.535.504.141.29.31327.6%13.8%
Week – A3.20.007.619.122.45.33310%25%

13-Hudson Head – 45 FV ARROW HAS NO CLUE WHERE TO POINT

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week-300/364/350.714.050.2401040%31.8%
Season-207/362/373.735.166.35910915.9%32.2%

14-Cody Bolton – 45 FV -out for the season

15-Maikol Escotto – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week-262/333/263.596.000.301749.5%38.1%
Season-245/374/368.742.123.36311216.0%31.6%

16-Anthony Solometo – Nothing Yet

17-Jared Jones – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week2.216.876.433.37.54530.0%20.0%
Season55.14.233.693.531.46.39835.1%10.8%

18-Carmen Mlodzinski – 40+ FV

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week1.210.803.193.60.62518.2%9.1%
Season46.23.474.463.901.18.28631.3%9.4%

19-Canaan Smith-Njigba – 40+ FV IL

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week – (IL)
Season.286/.403/.427.830.14137213216.1%25.8%

20-Lonnie White – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week
Season333/333/556.889.222.4021320%44.4%

21-Rodolfo Castro – 40+ FV  ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPSISOwOBAwRCwalkK
Week125/222/313.535.188.2404511.8%5.6%
Season287/340/511.851.224.3631256.5%19.0%
MLB198/258/395.653.198.282766.5%29.0%

22-Diego Castillo – ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week400/471/400.871.000.38113711.8%5.9%
Season – PIT282/342/445.787.164.3431128.3%7.4%
Season – NYY277/345/504.850.228.3671288.4%13.7%

23-Rodolfo Nolasco – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week286/455/5711.026.286.45316127.3%27.3%
Season252/376/398.774.146.37411515.2%31.2%

24-Jared Oliva – 40+ FV

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week286/375/333.708.o48.3321008.3%33.3%
Season250/325/346.670.096.306837.9%28.5%
MLB175/233/225.458.050.215207%23.3%

25-Endy Rodriguez – 40+ FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week444/565/6111.176.167.54822421.7%8.7%
Season283/375/472.848.189.39513112.3%18.5%

26-Mason Martin – 40+ FV ARROW DOWN

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week158/273/211.483.053.237439.1%36.4%
Season251/328/519.847.268.3591238.5%34.8%

27-Jose Soriano – 40+ FV – Out for the season

28-Luis Oviedo -40+ FV – MLB

29-Cal Mitchel – 40+ FV ARROW UP

BA/OBP/SLOPS  ISO  wOBAwRCwalkK
Week526.550/5261.026.000.4842054.2%16.7%
Season287/338/451.789.1643431125.7%16.8%

30-Eddy Yean – 40+ FV ARROW UP

IPERAFIP  xFIP  WHIPBABIPK%BB
Week601.970.67.23133.3%4.8%
Season595.195.284.641.36.25724.1%13.6%

Quick Thoughts

A nice week all in all down on the farm. Eight arrows pointing up, four pointing down, and one that I have no clue what to think.

With Priester, Gonzales and Cruz playing so well, I can see a bump to a 55 FV soon. Priester and Cruz would technically bring the 55 back while Gonzales would be new to that rating.

Who could we be talking about as getting promoted soon? We can start with all three of the above. I think Cal Mitchel could also be in that conversation.

And last but not least, what the heck is going on with Hudson Head? The obvious center piece of the Joe Musgrove trade came with a lot of buzz and is our highlighted prospect of the week. Advanced control of the zone and power that could develop and great contact rate… that’s what we had hoped we were getting. And I can’t say he looks bad, but he certainly hasn’t been the guy we hoped we’d be getting.

Hudson is hitting an anemic .207 and that is not at all what we want to see. However, his OBP is 155 points higher at .362 due to a ridiculous walk rate of 15.9%, which is accompanied by a 32.2% strike out rate. But there’s more! His ISO (.166) and wOBA (.359) are good, or at least above average, but the wRC+ is average at best. Meanwhile, the BABIP is solid enough at .295 and that suggests bad luck with such a big drop in his average.

The good? He has 59 base on balls. The bad? He only has two more hits than walks, with 61.

Good: Power is developing with 25 extra base hits. Bad: He has 61 hits. Did I mention that?

Good: He can play multiple spots in the OF. Bad: Nothing. He’s a solid OF.

I’ll end on a high note for Hudson here by saying he uses the whole field. Here’s where he hits them:

Pull rate-45% Up the middle-22.9% Opposite field-31.4%

In short, I have no clue what to think here. I like the approach and he clearly has control of the zone. I have to think there’s some bad luck involved, as the metrics lean that way for now, but there’s a “but” to that. The 15.9% walk rate… is that due for regression? The law of averages would say it is, but there are some guys that have that eye. However, if that rate takes a dive and some of the metrics don’t bounce the right way, he could see some struggles. He’s young and there’s work to be done here for sure. But hey, that’s why they’re called prospects! See ya in a week.

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