Top Prospects Guess

2-24-22 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

Recently Fangraphs updated the Pirates top prospects list. If you haven’t checked it out, please give a look. For one, Fangraphs is awesome. Two, Fangraphs writers get paid off the clicks. Three, the list is solid. And four, it’s the list Joe and I have gone off of for our trade pieces, as well as for the prospect updates I did last year. You’ll thank me later.

Speaking of those prospects updates, in the last installment I included a prediction (that was bound to be wrong) where I thought some changes to the list would occur. Let’s take a look at how I did. (Truth be told, I feel pretty good about the results.) Let’s start at the top.

I predicted that Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Roansy Contreras and Quinn Priester would all get bumps and Cruz would be 60 FV. Oneil Cruz did in fact get a bump to a 60 FV. The others? They all stayed at a 50 FV, so I missed there. And that’s ok, as I think all three will be in line for a fast bump with a fast start.

I predicted Yajure, Swags and Peguero would all stay at a 50 FV. Yajure and Swags both lost the 50 FV and were dropped to a 45 FV. I’m not going to beat myself up there. Injury played into both as Swaggerty is no longer young for the level, and Miguel just never settled in. Peguero not only kept the 50 FV but moved up the list ever so slightly, and I’d say if the power continues to develop and the contact numbers are good, he could see a bump before 2022 is over.

I predicted Tahnaj Thomas would fall out of the top 10 and as low as a 40+. He fell to a 35+. The control here has a long way to go and honestly, the K rate just isn’t as promising as the stuff suggests it should be.

Did Matt Fraizer and Endy Rodriguez jump as high as I thought they would? A solid yes. I predicted both would be in the Bucs top 10 and both should see a 45-50 FV. They split those numbers and are both 45+ FV. Did Po-Yu Chen get his 40+? Well, no, but close enough coming in with a 40 FV.

Did Ji-hwan Bae get bumped to a 45+? Nope, I missed there.

Next prediction? I said Maikol Escotto, Camren Mlodzinski and Jared Jones all get a 45 FV. Jones is the only one of the three that got the 45 FV and if he keeps missing bats at this clip and gets a hair better with the control, he’ll be a 50 FV soon enough. Escotto stayed flat at 40+ but Mlodzinski dropped to a 40 FV. And that was the first surprise of the list, injury? Not sure what they saw there we didn’t.

As for Diego Castillo and Rudolpho Castro? They stayed at their 40+ and 40 FV’s respectively. (Castro actually fell to a 40 FV from 40+ so I missed there.)

I said Jared Oliva, Jose Sariano, Luis Oviedo, Max Kranick and Steve Jennings would drop off the list. While Oviedo and Sariano dropped off, Jennings, Kranick and Oliva stuck around.

Tucapita Marcano did drop to a 35+(this was as easy a prediction as I had on here).

I pondered if Jared Triolo, Jackson Glenn, Austin Roberts and Michael Burrows could see surprise bumps. Jackson Glenn is now on the list with a 35+. Roberts and Triolo stayed at their 40 FV. However, Michael Burrows did in fact get a bump to a 45. Burrows is also a guy to watch here. His change up is coming along as he only used it 9% of the time and he didn’t pitch deep into games, but he has a shot here.

My last prediction was there would be six new names to the list. Geovanny Planchart, Dariel Lopez, Jauri Custidio, Omar Cruz and Tsung-Che Cheng. How’d I’d do there?

Tsung Che-Cheng, yes coming in with a 35+.

Dariel Lopez, yes, with a HUGE jump to a 40+.

Omar Cruz, check! 35+.

I missed on Jauri Custidio and Geovanny Planchart. Planchart is my biggest missed prediction as I had him with Fraizer and Endy as one of the biggest raisers on the list. If he gets stateside and looks good, I think he makes the jump by years end.

I had a lot of fun going through this and would love to hear from the peanut gallery. Who’d Fangraphs get wrong here? Who did they overvalue? Undervalue? Who’d they leave off? Hit me up! @JV_PITT

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