Justin Verno- We’re getting close to Deadline and so far we’ve done Reynolds, Bednar, Gamel and Quintana. Not much meat left on the bone, but no worries! Joe and I have a few names left to throw at the wall. In this installment Joe and I have four guys we think could be on the move and while none are big ticket expenses, they all could bring something of value.
-Chris Stratton. This has not been Stratton’s best season but a metric driven team is going to want those spin rates.
-Daniel Vogelbach. The bat has played and a fringe competitor could like the bargain in adding Big Dan!
-Kevin Newman. We know he sucks, but he has some versatility with the glove, some speed on the bags, and teams might like the control attached to him. Let’s hope he hits a little while playing second base leading up to the deadline.
Dillon Peters-LHR always have a market, and Peters is controlled for 4+ more years. That will attract many teams (that would include the Buccos keeping him) but do the Bucs view him as one of the year after year reliable BP arms? Or will they consider him fungible?
These are the names, let’s get to the value!
Joe Boyd – By now, you know how these things works, so I’m going to spare you the tables and we’ll just go rapid fire:
Stratton – 1.5 Years of Control (YoC) & $3.07M Surplus Value (SV)
Vogelbach – 1.5 YoC & $11.20M SV
Newman – 2.5 YoC & $9.93M SV
Peters – 4.5 YoC & $7.23M SV
Rather than try to come up with four teams/trades, I think I’ll just go with one team and see what types of prospects we’re looking at in return.
So with Stratton ($3.07M SV), I absolutely love the guy, as you know. His valuation fits nicely in the 40+ pitcher realm. I’ll go back to Cole Sands, again with Minnesota. Dude has the traits to be Stratton, so perhaps the Twins will take the nearterm value in exchange for future Stratton?
Vogelbach ($11.20M SV) could add a solid bat to a contender and he’s also under team control next year, as well. I think this value is a bit inflated for a 1B/DH, so I wouldn’t expect something that high. My thought would be more in the 45 Pitcher/Position Player range which is more like $4-6M. How would you feel about Cole Wilcox from Tampa? Former 3rd round selection that Longenhagen says, “His fastball, slider and present command would be enough to project Wilcox in a late-inning bullpen role, but a better change or split (the development of which was slowed by his freshman role) would enable him to be a mid-rotation piece.” Like Quintana, Vogelbach was a low cost addition, just like Quintana, that could provide a nice depth piece for future Bucco teams.
Newman ($9.93M) probably won’t command this high of a return, either. But he does provide nice depth for a contender. There should be no reason to hang on to the guy from Cherington’s perspective, right? I think a contender could have him for very little. I’m thinking a 40+ position player does the trick. So who fits that bill? Perhaps Boston would offer Alex Binelas who happens to be on the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Newman? Back to Longenhagen, “Binelas’ calling card is plus-plus raw power and the ability to get to it in games. It’s a big, brutish swing that is designed for just one thing: doing major damage. He’s capable of no-doubters from pole-to-pole, but it comes with plenty of swing-and-miss and an approach that while far from a disaster, is still on the aggressive side.”
Lastly, we added Peters ($7.23M SV) due to the fact that he’s on his way back from injury and we both think now’s a good time to sell high. I’m actually pretty comfortable placing him in the same bucket as Vogelbach, so I’ll say that a similar deal would get Cherington to a ‘yes’ on a deal for Peters.
JV- I’m taking a different approach and will use different teams, but like Joe I’ll keep it simple, as there’s a lot to get through in this one.
Stratton to the Rays-($3M) The Rays need BP help and they love spin rates so this seems a natural spot for him to land. Joe used Wilcox(4M) for Vogelbach and while that’s an overpay for Stratton I’ll steal it. I think the Rays will like the spin rates enough to pull the trigger. Wilcox rule is still to be determined but ya gotta love the floor of a late inning reliever.
Vogelbach to the Mets-($11M) JD Davis and DOm Smith just haven’t got it done and the Mets are smack dab in the hunt and the owner is hungry like the wolf(I’m sorry). 1B Mark Vientos FV 45($6M). This is a tough one for Mets fans to read but the once top prospect has lost some luster and the math here works. Mark’s power is real; he carries an OPS of .833 at AAA thanks to hitting 15HR and 9 2B. So what’s the issue, a K rate of 31% is the issue. His hit tool comes in at an CV/FV of 30/35 but if the power is intriguing to say the least. It’s possible that BC can get another 35+ or 40 snuck into this deal? Possible but let’s not get selfish.
Newman to the Mariners($10M)- The Mariners finally add a Bucco, sorry Mariners fan, it isn’t Bryan Reynolds. Mariners have tuned it on lately and are now in the WC picture. 2B is a need and they don’t have to break the bank by adding Newman.
RF Lazaro Montes–ETA 2027-FV: 40+ ($4M)- Lazaro has a lot of power potential, FV 70 for raw power but is a long way off. His hit tool needs a lot of work but the pay-off could well be worth it.
SIRP Travis Kuhn–ETA 2022- FV: 40 ($1M)- Travis is a 2 offerings pitcher and is an interesting BP arm that is close the MLB. The FB touches 98 and sits 93-96, add in a solid slider and you have the makes of a solid BP addition.
Peters to the Dodgers-($7M) The Dodgers BP has been riddled with injuries and they will be looking long and hard at the BP market. Enter a LH Peters with control.
SP Edgardo Henriquez–ETA: 2024- FV 40($4M) I’ve mentioned him before and would love to add him here. This would be a big return for Peters. And I’m not just talking about his 6’4” 200 LB frame for the 29 year old Henriquez, a frame that can add build, built to be a starter. The promising 19 has a FB that can touch 100 MPH and sits 94-97. Add in a slider(60 FV), a CB(50 FV) and a change that needs work and you have a hell of a prospect.
JV- Before we move on to next week Joe, we’ve had a request from @eYARKulation …
I have not seen JT mentioned in any rumors or connected to any teams but we’re always up to the challenge.
First Joe we need to start with control and if it would make sense to move JT? With 3+ years of control left, making sense of moving him is not easy, but it’s also not as hard to envision as, say moving Bryan Reynolds. If Cherington and his staff think this is Brubaker at his very best and that is not something he will repeat, cashing in could be something that is on the table.
JB- Brubaker is projected as, on average, a 1.0 WAR player over the next 3.5 seasons. That’s not frontline starter stuff, but he clearly has value on this team. That puts his value at $25.14M SV which I personally think puts him in no-man’s land. A $25M prospect would be a 50FV Pitcher ($21M SV) or a 50FV Position Player ($28M) and those players fall in the top 100, so I honestly don’t see a team moving a top 100 guy for Brubaker. So now you’re looking at a package of several 45 FV prospects and my guess is there is just too many good rentals out there that you keep those guys. Thoughts, Justin?
JV- I tend to agree. JT is a guy that I think can anchor the back end of the rotation and sometimes it’s just so hard to line up a return that makes sense. But what the hell, that’s what we’re here for so one of us should at least take a shot! Here goes.
JT Brubaker to the Orioles-($25) The Orioles are playing solid baseball but are they really ready to add? The fans are amped and it’s been a long while, making a trade for JT would be a long view trade. Let’s have fun.
RF Heston Kjerstad- ETA: 2024- FV 45($6M) It’s tough to let go of a former 1st round pick but Heston has been slowed by injuries and the O’s gotta give something up if they were to make a move. Giving up Heston’s power is tough but doable.
SS Leandro Arias-ETA: 2027-FV 40+(4M) Kid needs to eat a sandwich, 6’1” 170 LB. But he already grades out as a 45 FV with the glove. A lot of upside here.
SIRP Mike Baumann-ETA: 2022-FV 40($1M) Mike has 4 offerings, but his best stuff is his slider(70CV) and FB(55/60 FV). Needs to generate more swings and misses but looks to be a nice add to the bullpen.
I’m not sure if this really pries 4+ years of Brubaker off the Bucs hands but I feel this is likely the best type of package the Pirates would fetch for JT. That’s it for this edition, I hope you join us next week for the last trade piece before the Trade Deadline. The following week Joe and I will rerack and talk about some of the specific rumors we’ve heard before the Deadline. But next week? Next we turn the tables, next week Joe and I take a look at some trade ideas to ADD to the team!