Two Guys Talkin’ Trades: Winter Meetings

12-5-22 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno- Welp Corey the time is up. Please put your pencils down, close your test booklet and pass it to the person in front of you. The Winter Meetings have begun.

Corey Shrader- The Winter Meetings always mark the beginning of a new season to me. We’ve seen some big names start to sign and join new teams already and I anticipate that we will see some more of that in the coming days.

JV- A quick note here, Corey and I started to put this together Thursday December 1st and will update until it gets published. So if it appears a tad choppy that might explain why, we want to get as many “rumors” in here as we can. And Corey, we really haven’t heard too many as of December the 1st.

CS- Well, I guess we should probably discuss the large elephant in the room, shouldn’t we?

These 2 tidbits were all we had until a few short hours ago Corey. When everything came to a screeching halt and we were thrown a curveball event the best hitters would struggle with.

This last piece is supposed to address all the current rumors we’ve heard so we can give quick thoughts on what we think could be fun to see. To glance over those final values and attach some names to them. But honestly Corey, it’s become a last second Bryan Reynolds piece. I can’t imagine we hear too many  more rumors that don’t have his name attached to it?

Here’s what I’m thinking, make a quick list of teams that could be calling GMBC on Reynolds, splitting it in half and taking turns in giving a package, speed round style?

CS –  I’ve got to think Reynolds is the main name on pretty much every team’s radar after the news of his trade request hit. Running down a list of potential suitors seems like a prudent approach to me.

JV-  As we get rolling here here’s a reminder of what Reynolds surplus looks like, and ZiPS has him at a 3.9 WAR in 23 so we are about 6 million shy in our SV.

I’ll get it kicked off with my obvious package (This should look familiar)

JV-Dodgers- Andy Pages– OF 50 FV(28M), Bobby Miller-SP 50 FV($21M) Maddux Bruns-SP–45+($6M)

Pages and Miller are close and Bruns give them something for later.

CS- Blue Jays – Orelvis Martinez – 3B/DH FV 50 ($28), Ricky Tiedemann – P FV 50 ($21)

Not without risk, Orelvis Martinez has grown man power. As a 20 year old he put up a 30 homer season at AA while being roughly 4 years younger than the average player in the level. The overall production was a little lacking (96 wRC+, .319 wOBA), but his power potential is tantalizing. Tiedemann was a breakout pitching prospect and would immediately become the Bucs best in the entire system upon acquisition.

JV-Rangers- Jack Leiter-SP 55 FV($34M), Cole Winn–SP FV 50($21M), Dustin Harris–1B FV 45($6M)

Two starters is not ideal but perhaps the Bucs can flip Cole and Harris has promise.

CS- Mets- Kevin Parada – C/OF FV 50 ($28), Mark Vientos – 1B FV 45 (6M), David Peterson – SP SV$16.4

Peterson plugs right into the 2023 rotation and is still pre-arbitration. Parada is another 2022 draftee with an enormous ceiling to his bat, and was linked to the Bucs at 1.4. Vientos is sort of outside looking in for the Mets, currently blocked by Eduardo Escobar and Brett Baty at 3B and The Polar Bear at 1B,  his big power can plug right in for the Bucs.

JV- This article is now interrupted with a fresh dose of rumors. Corey, we have to add the Rockies and Braves per sources(Yankees are mentioned here as well but that isn’t at all news)

And now back to our  regularly scheduled program.

JV-Rockies- Zach Veen–OF– FV 50($28M0, Drew Romo–C– FV 50($28M0, Jaden Hill–P– FV 40+($3M)

A sneaky good package from a surprise entry in the Reynolds sweepstakes. (Jaden Hill has a ton of upside)

CS- Red Sox – Ceddanne Rafaela – OF FV 45 ($6), Blaze Jordan – 1B FV 40+ ($4), Miguel Bleis – OF FV 50 ($28), Wikelman Gonzalez – P FV 45+ ($6)

This trade partner is also a little questionable for me. Sure this package adds up, but there is no “star” level prospect here. I am a bit bullish on Rafaela given his defense is borderline elite and the bat looks to be outperforming expectations. But the timeline for the rest is pretty far out. 

JV-Cards- Jordan Walker–OF– FV 60($55M), Gordon Graceffo-SP- FV 50($21M)

Cards want Reynolds they need to really ante up, I would actually want  one more decent prospect here, but you get the point. 

CS- Astros – Hunter Brown – SP FV 50 ($21), Drew Gilbert – OF FV45 ($6), Bryan Abreu – RP SV$4.7, Colton Gordon – P FV ? (0)

Must admit, I am not certain that I see this as a great matchup despite them having a need to upgrade their OF. Brown can plug in immediately, Gilbert was another 2022 draftee that I would have seriously considered at 1.4, Abreu plugs in immediately to the back-end of the bullpen, & Colton Gordon is a lottery ticket that does not have a clear picture of value, but I think would make a terrific tack on here.

JV-Rays– Taj Bradely–SP- FV 55($34M), Kyle Manzardo–1B– FV 50 ($28M)

 A bit of an overpay and it seems the Rays have no interest in moving Bradely.

CS- Guardians –  George Valera – OF FV 50 ($28), Tanner Bibee – P FV 50 ($21)

Both of these guys have impact potential. Valera has power & plate discipline in spades. Bibee is tremendously underrated at the moment of writing this, but you should expect to see him getting his just deserts soon. His fastball exploded in 2022 & pairing it with his good slider makes him, for my money, the second best pitcher in the Cleveland system and would likely be the best arm in Pittsburgh’s upon entering theirs.

JV-SFG- Kyle Harrison-SP– FV 55($34M), Luis Matos–OF– FV 50($28M)

Another overpay, and you can see what I’m doing here? Cherington should not settle if he is to move Reynolds, pay up or move on.

CS- Braves – Vaughn Grissom – SS/2B SV (21.8), Kyle Mueller P – FV 45 ($4), JR Ritchie – P FV 45 ($4), Justyn-Henry Malloy 3B/OF – FV 35+ ($1)

Perhaps the team with the toughest fit of all that I was tasked with is Atlanta. This package is the best I could come up with and it falls significantly short on value. Grissom would almost have to be the headliner and the rest of the package is still quite tricky. I do think Malloy is undervalued as he just broke out in 2022 and do expect a solid FV bump for 2023. I just can’t see them getting it done with the Braves (or at least I hope not).

JV- Marlins-Trevor Rogers–SP SV $40M, Jordan Berry–1B FV 50($28M), Dax Fulton–SP– FV 45($4M)

I thought about insisting on Eury Perez, and perhaps they do. Edward Cabrera could also be used. Marlins have a few ways they can go. 

CS- Yankees – Jasson Dominguez – OF FV 50 (28M), Spencer Jones – OF FV 45 (6M), Trey Sweeney – INF FV 45 (6M), Clarke Schmidt – P SV$5.6

This package comes up a hair shy on Reynolds calculated SV, however, this is the type of package that would truly intrigue me. The Martian is an elite headliner, Spencer Jones is big/fast/strong & someone I wanted to see in the Bucs draft in 2022 (think Oneil Cruz tool-kit), Sweeney has incredible skills with the bat, and Schmidt is ready to enter the rotation right now. Some may think this is “light”, but I would disagree. For me it checks several boxes it would take to move Reynolds. 

Wrap it up

JV- Sticking with the Christmas theme, I wonder if the Bucs find a shiny new toy, or three, under their tree this December? 

If they do trade Reynolds GMBC simply can not give Reynolds up for anything other than a wow type of package, Corey.  Even with a request to be traded. Cherington has to make it make sense.

CS- Pittsburgh is under no obligation to deal their star CF away. The front office should be fielding all calls and trying to leverage them as best they can, but they still should be feeling pressure from fans here to get a winning team on the field ASAP. That likely means keeping Reynolds in the mix, in my opinion. Unless the relationship is truly irreparable, the goal should be to continue to add talent around the roster WITH Bryan Reynolds at its heart.

What a wild first few days of the Winter Meetings!

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